Private payrolls nearly doubled expectations last month, as the ADP Employment Report showed that there were 296,000 jobs created in April. Annual pay for job stayers increased 6.7% and job changers saw an average increase of 13.2%. While these figures are still high, they reflect a year-long slowdown and lower wage-pressured inflation, with job-changers in particular seeing the slowest pace of pay growth since November 2021.

What’s the bottom line? The leisure and hospitality sector once again led the way with 154,000 job gains, and this sector has been a huge driver of job growth after the massive losses seen during the height of the pandemic. However, these jobs may not bolster the overall private payroll total for much longer. In April 2019, there were 16.2 million leisure and hospitality employees and there are now 16.25 million after last month’s gains, meaning we have eclipsed where we were pre-Covid. In addition, private sector job growth has been quite volatile so far this year, with monthly gains averaging 205,000 from January through April. This is compared to an average of 306,000 new jobs per month throughout last year, so we’re seeing a clear  slowdown notwithstanding April’s strong print.