The latest Jobs Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the unemployment rate reached 3.9% in October, compared to the low of 3.4% reached in April while the economy was expanding. This level of increase has been a reliable leading indicator of a recession historically. From 1970 onwards, when the unemployment rate has risen by 0.5% or more from the expansion low, a recession was either already occurring or occurred within two months.

Another recession indicator called the Sahm Rule (named after former Fed economist Claudia Sahm) flashes when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.5% or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months. If the unemployment rate in November rises to 4.2% (this data will be reported on December 8), this indicator would trigger.

A third labor market recession indicator occurs when the number of people unemployed for 15 weeks or longer (as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Jobs Report) rises by 19% or more on a year-over-year basis. We just crossed that threshold in the last report that was released on November 3.

What’s the bottom line? While a recession is not a great thing for the economy, one positive aspect is that periods of recession are always coupled with lower interest rates.