Unemployment Claims Remain Volatile

Unemployment Claims Remain Volatile

Initial Jobless Claims fell by 9,000 in the latest week, as 228,000 people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time. Continuing Claims rose by 33,000, with 1.754 million people still receiving benefits after filing their initial claim. While this latter metric is well above the low of 1.289 million seen last September, it has declined from the high of 1.861 million reported in early April, reflecting a mix of people finding new jobs and benefits expiring.

What’s the bottom line? Initial Jobless Claims are volatile from week to week, but economists had expected first-time filings to rise since the previous report encompassed a holiday week. Plus, Initial Claims have declined to tamer numbers over the last month after topping 260,000 for the first three weeks of June. Employers are still clearly trying to retain workers.

Yet, there has also been a clear slowdown in the pace of hirings in the private sector. Last year, private sector job gains averaged 376,000 a month but we’ve seen this number decline to 215,000 a month over the last six months and 196,000 over the last three months.