The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index was reported at 91.9 for November. While this was a slight improvement from October, this is the eleventh straight month the index has come in well below the 49-year average of 98. Among the key takeaways, 32% of small business owners reported that inflation remained their biggest problem, so evidence of cooling inflation is certainly a welcome sign.

What’s the bottom line? Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB’s chief economist, noted that, “Going into the holiday season, small business owners are seeing a slight ease in inflation pressures, but prices remain high.” He added, “The small business economy is recovering as owners manage an ongoing labor shortage, supply chain disruptions, and historic inflation.”

Shipping Data Brings Positive Sign for Inflation Picture

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight across the country, rose 1.8% in November. However, on a year-over-year basis the expenditures component decelerated from +21% in September to +11.1% in October to now +4.7% in November. 

What’s the bottom line? The Cass Freight Index is a monthly measure of the North American freight market and it provides valuable insight into supply chain indicators and the overall economy. The latest data shows that the supply and demand imbalance in trucking markets has loosened significantly this year. As a result, freight rates are leveling off and set to soften further in the months to come. Shippers are starting to see real savings and considerable cost relief is now likely for 2023, which is positive news for the inflation picture.