Reporting Adjustment Sheds Light on Unemployment Claims

Initial Jobless Claims fell by 18,000 in the latest week, as 228,000 people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time. However, this does not tell the whole story. The previous week’s data was revised higher from 198,000 to 246,000 due to methodology adjustments, as explained below.

The number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits after their initial claim is filed also rose 6,000 to 1.823 million. There is more to this figure as well, with the prior week being revised higher from 1.689 million to 1.817 million.

What’s the bottom line? The Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised the seasonal adjustment factors they were using to compile the Jobless Claims report now that they have a better understanding of how COVID impacted the numbers in recent years. This has caused a material change in many of the previous reports over the past five years, making the number of Initial and Continuing Claims MUCH higher. These revisions paint a very different labor market picture than previously reported.

In addition, the Job Cuts Report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that there were 90,000 job cuts in March, which is 15% higher than February. The technology sector led the way, accounting for 38% of the total. The report also noted that market and economic conditions, cost-cutting, and unit or department closings are the biggest reasons for job cuts made this year.