The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that there were 236,000 jobs created in March, which was in line with estimates. Revisions to the data from January and February subtracted 17,000 jobs in those months combined, which tempers March’s gains a bit. The unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5% even as the labor force increased.
What’s the bottom line? Despite the strength in these headline points, a deeper look at the data shows some signs of weakness in the labor market.
Leisure and hospitality accounted for 72,000 new jobs in March. This sector has been a huge driver of job gains after the massive losses seen during the height of the pandemic. However, 98% of these jobs have now been regained so they may not contribute to the overall total for much longer. In fact, the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report showed a sizable drop in leisure and hospitality job openings over the last two months.
In addition, while average hourly earnings were up 4.2% year over year in March, this is a decline from 4.6% and the lowest post-COVID yearly increase we have seen. Average weekly earnings were only up 3.3% year over year, which is also a big drop from the previous two reports.
It also appears that some companies are cutting hours to save costs, which is another sign of a slowing labor market. The average workweek fell from 34.5 hours to 34.4 hours, the lowest number of hours worked since 2019 (excluding COVID). While this doesn’t sound like a large decline, it reflects the entire US workforce of 161 million workers whose hours were cut by a tenth of an hour on average. This reduction in hours equates to 468,000 job losses.