The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which is considered the “gold standard” for appreciation, showed home prices declined 0.5% from December to January but they were 3.8% higher when compared to January 2022. This annual reading is a decline from the 5.6% gain reported in December.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) also released their House Price Index, which revealed that home prices rose 0.2% from December to January. While prices rose 5.3% from January 2022 to January 2023, this was a decline from the 6.6% annual increase reported in December.

These figures differ in part because FHFA’s report measures home price appreciation on single-family homes with conforming loan amounts, which means it most likely represents lower-priced homes. FHFA also does not include cash buyers or jumbo loans.

What’s the bottom line? Home prices have been softening nationwide, but S&P DJI Managing Director Craig J. Lazzara noted that they are only down 5.1% from their peak last June. Plus, when you adjust for seasonal factors, prices are only down 3% from the peak. This is a far cry from a housing crash of 20% that some in the media have been predicting.