Jobs Data Shows Cracks in the Labor Sector

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that there were 311,000 jobs created in February. While this was stronger than estimates, revisions to the data from December and January subtracted 34,000 jobs in those months combined. The unemployment rate rose from 3.4% to 3.6%.

 

What’s the bottom line? While the headline job growth number appeared strong, there were some cracks in the data.

 

There are two reports within the Jobs Report and there is a fundamental difference between them. The Business Survey is where the headline job number comes from, and it's based predominately on modeling and estimations. The Household Survey, where the Unemployment Rate comes from, is derived by calling households to see if they are employed.

 

The Household Survey has its own job creation component and it showed that there were only 177,000 new jobs created last month. The Household Survey also showed that the labor force increased by 419,000, which reflects more people entering the labor force and looking for employment. The number of people who have been unemployed for less than five weeks also jumped by 343,000, showing that people are having a harder time finding a job quickly after losing one.