Is the Rise in Wholesale Inflation a Concern?

The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation on the wholesale level, increased by 0.7% in August, coming in hotter than expected. On an annual basis, PPI doubled from 0.8% to 1.6%. Core PPI, which also strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.2%, with the year-over-year reading dropping from 2.4% to 2.2%.

 

What’s the bottom line? While annual PPI also moved higher in the wrong direction, it was coming from a very low level and remains extremely muted, well below last year’s 11.7% peak. Plus, much of the increase in wholesale inflation was also due to rising energy prices, like we saw with consumer inflation.

Remember, the Fed has been hiking its benchmark Fed Funds Rate (which is the overnight borrowing rate for banks) to try to slow the economy and curb inflation. Their latest hike in July was the eleventh since March of last year, pushing the Fed Funds Rate to the highest level in 22 years.

Will the progress we’ve seen so far on inflation be enough for the Fed to pause further hikes? Recent comments from several Fed members suggest that’s the case, including New York President John Williams (monetary policy is in “a good place”), Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (skipping a hike this month “could be appropriate”), and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (the Fed may be at a point to “hold rates steady”).

We’ll find out what the Fed decides for sure this Wednesday, after their two-day meeting concludes.