Initial Jobless Claims fell by 12,000 in the latest week, with 237,000 people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. Continuing Claims rose by 11,000, with 1.729 million people still receiving benefits after filing their initial claim. While this latter metric is well above the low of 1.289 million seen last September, it has trended downward since April as some people have found new employment while others have seen their benefits expire.

What’s the bottom line? While the decline in Initial Claims appears to show a strong labor market, the measured week included July 4 and this likely impacted the data as people often put off filing during holiday weeks. We saw a similar dynamic when Initial Claims declined in the week encompassing the Juneteenth holiday, only to see them rise the following week. Note that Continuing Claims measured the week before Independence Day, so they were unaffected by the holiday.