Fed Pivots, Signals Rate Cuts Are Ahead

After eleven rate hikes since March of last year, the Fed once again left their benchmark Federal Funds Rate unchanged at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. This decision was unanimous and followed similar pauses taken at their September and November meetings.

The Fed Funds Rate is the interest rate for overnight borrowing for banks and it is not the same as mortgage rates. The Fed has been aggressively hiking the Fed Funds Rate throughout this cycle to try to slow the economy and curb the runaway inflation that became rampant last year.

What’s the bottom line? At his press conference following the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the “very good news” that “inflation has eased from its highs,” though he noted that ongoing progress “is not assured.”

While the Fed did not rule out additional rate hikes if warranted to keep inflation in check, last week’s meeting suggested that rate cuts are ahead next year. The “dot plot” of Fed member forecasts for where policy rates will be in a year showed that 15 out of 19 members expect cuts between 50 and 100 basis points over the course of next year.